Gold Surges to New Highs

Gold’s 2025 rally has been nothing short of historic, surging 30% year-to-date to an all-time high of over $3,400/oz—the strongest start to a year ever. Since Trump’s tariff announcement, gold has added $800, notched six $100+ intraday swings, and now trades at a $2,400 premium to platinum. Bullish momentum has been driven by geopolitical instability, US policy uncertainty, and record central bank buying, while ETF and retail demand—particularly from China—have surged. Chinese gold ETFs added RMB5.6bn (US$772mn) in March alone, pushing total AUM to a record RMB101bn (US$14bn). Holdings reached 138t, also a record, fueled by safe-haven demand amid global trade and domestic economic concerns.

Positioning remains mildly long, but sentiment is at peak bullish. Parabolic moves in gold crosses (e.g., XAU/TRY +38% YTD) and record auction volumes—nearly 400k oz in a single session—suggest large-scale players are acting with maximum impact. Technically, gold is trading more like a high-beta stock, with signs of late-cycle behavior and potential for a blowoff top. The GLD ETF is up 22% this quarter—its best ever—fueling further FOMO.

Bearish risks include a US-China trade breakthrough, a sudden reversal in central bank demand, or renewed confidence in the US dollar. The bond market's recent volatility, with 30-year yields spiking to 5%, alongside speculation about China and Japan dumping USTs in favor of gold, highlights a deeper systemic shift. While no one has the conviction to short gold, the current landscape suggests it’s increasingly trading on macro fear and structural change, not just fundamentals.