Gold: The Ultimate Anti-Dollar Asset

Gold surged to $3,500/oz last week but has since settled just above $3,300/oz, continuing its parabolic climb as investors flee mounting U.S.-centric risks. De-dollarization, rising geopolitical tensions, and concerns over U.S. economic policy—driven by Trump’s tariff threats and criticism of Powell—have upended the old “There Is No Alternative” (TINA) narrative. Capital is shifting out of U.S. equities and into gold, now seen as the preferred safe haven. Since breaking above its long-standing triple top at $2,000/oz, gold has gained over 70%, appearing structurally unstoppable—even if technically overbought.

Dovish signals from U.S. policymakers, calls for rate cuts, and China’s record gold purchases (1,384 tonnes in 2024) have all contributed to the rally. The current price sits 22% above its 200-day moving average, a rare extreme seen only eight times since 1974—usually followed by a correction, except during the 1980 bull market. Fundamental models based on U.S. federal debt suggest a fair value around $3,210, while alternative indicators—like Bitcoin ratios, Dow/Gold, and China’s trade surplus—imply targets as high as $4,500 to $9,000+.

This rally isn’t just about hedging macro risk—it reflects a deeper shift in how gold is perceived. Increasingly, it’s seen as a luxury asset or store of value, similar to high-end collectibles like Birkin bags, whose resale value far exceeds production cost. With average gold production at $1,450/oz, the case for significantly higher multiples becomes more plausible. Gold is no longer behaving like a commodity—it’s trading like the world’s ultimate anti-dollar momentum asset.