Gold Resilient Ahead of Tariff Deadline

Gold prices remained resilient this past week, consolidating near $3,400/oz amid persistent fiscal concerns, renewed central bank interest, and strong ETF inflows. While slightly below April’s record high of $3,500, bullion continues to find support from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Central banks added a net 20 tonnes to global gold reserves in May, led by Kazakhstan (+7t), Turkey (+6t), and Poland (+6t), as gold’s role as a strategic reserve asset remains firmly intact. The 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey showed that 95% of respondents expect global gold reserves to grow in the coming year, with a record 43% planning to increase their own holdings up from 29% in 2024. 

In parallel, gold-backed ETFs experienced robust demand in June, capping off the strongest H1 since 2020. Global ETF inflows reached $38bn for the first half of the year, with total holdings rising by 397 tonnes to 3,616t. North America led inflows with $4.8bn in June alone, driven by fiscal instability and a weaker US dollar. Europe added $2bn as dovish policy signals from central banks and slowing growth bolstered safe-haven demand. Asian flows, led by India and Japan, ended H1 at a record $11bn, amid geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. 

With US Treasury yields falling, market expectations now price in three rate cuts by year-end. However, complacency around upcoming tariff risks especially as the July 9th deadline looms poses upside risk to gold if trade tensions escalate. Overall, gold remains well supported by structural and tactical demand across investor segments.