Structural Support, Tactical Surge: Gold Finds New Legs in June

Over the last week, gold has resumed its upward trajectory, rising 5% month-to-date to US$3,435/oz, bolstered by structural liquidity, geopolitical risks, and renewed investment demand. The broader macro landscape remains anchored in the reality that fiscal austerity is off the table there’s growing recognition that U.S. deficits will rise, not fall, and global M2 liquidity is hitting all-time highs. This backdrop continues to provide structural support for gold and other real assets.  

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions most recently the Israel-Iran conflict have reignited safe-haven flows, with gold ETF inflows rebounding globally and in India, where AUM grew 97% y/y. Investor interest is broadening despite muted retail jewelry demand, as physical investment in bars and coins, particularly low-grammage ones, remains strong. 

Domestically, the RBI has paused gold buying amid higher prices, though reserves have still reached a record 879.6t, now 12.3% of India’s FX reserves. On the monetary front, the Fed left rates unchanged and appeared more hawkish than data suggests internalizing tariff-related inflation risks yet markets anticipate a dovish pivot in 2026. Globally, the dollar’s weakness, largely due to hedging flows from Asian institutional investors, continues to support gold prices.  

However, some risks remain: central bank gold demand appears increasingly one-sided, and gold has traded sluggishly relative to oil, despite rising global tensions. Still, the “Guns and Gold” trade remains intact, and the increasing appeal of platinum driven by tight supply, strategic stockpiling, and low investor positioning signals a broader search for monetary hedges. Overall, gold’s renewed strength reflects deep-rooted macro dislocations and structural investment trends.