Reid Ashcroft | Jul 15th 2025, 9:54:50 pm
Gold extended its impressive run-in early July, buoyed by escalating global trade tensions, persistent fiscal uncertainty, and resilient investment demand. After rising 26% in USD terms in H1, gold continues to trade near record highs (~$3,400/oz), supported by renewed tariff threats from the Trump administration
Gold extended its impressive run-in early July, buoyed by escalating global trade tensions, persistent fiscal uncertainty, and resilient investment demand. After rising 26% in USD terms in H1, gold continues to trade near record highs (~$3,400/oz), supported by renewed tariff threats from the Trump administration. Over the weekend, the White House announced sweeping 30% tariffs on the EU, Mexico, and Canada (effective August 1), with exemptions only for USMCA-compliant goods. While equity markets have shown muted reaction—likely due to “Trump fatigue”—commodities and metals markets are responding more directly. Silver surged on fears of rising Mexican tariffs, while physical market dislocations and softening EFPs across metals suggest tightening global inventories.
Gold’s appeal as a hedge remains strong amid rising volatility and doubts around the Fed’s independence, especially after unfounded reports emerged that Powell may resign. Meanwhile, June marked a milestone for U.S. customs-duty collections, which topped $100 billion for the first time in a fiscal year, underscoring tariffs' growing fiscal role.
ETF inflows and central bank purchases remain robust. In June alone, gold-backed ETFs added $38 billion globally—the best semi-annual inflow since 2020—while central banks, led by Kazakhstan and Poland, added a net 20t to reserves. With the macro calendar packed this week (including US CPI, China GDP, and major bank earnings), gold will remain sensitive to inflation data, Fed expectations, and geopolitical developments. While consensus sees rangebound price action ahead, deteriorating conditions could push gold another 10–15% higher in H2.
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